Many people check the weather forecast daily. Pulling out a cell phone allows a person to see upcoming weather at the click of a button. Rain or shine. Hot or cold. The predictions of meteorologists control how everyday civilians plan their days. But what few people understand is how these weather forecasts are made.
Methodology
In order to predict the weather, meteorologists often start with analyzing current weather patterns. Forecasters at the National Weather Service analyze regional weather at least three times a day, collecting data such as surface observations, satellite imagery, radar data, and much more. Forecasters then use a method known as the Forecast Funnel, where they focus on larger scale processes, then zone in on specific and local processes. Forecasters also utilize computer stimulations which use complex physics to predict weather processes numerically.
History of weather forecasting
Humans have been attempting to predict the weather for centuries, but the advanced numerical weather forecasts today did not develop until after World War II. The University of Pennsylvania’s digital computer ENIAC was utilized to predict the weather based on a series of highly complex mathematical equations. However, calculating a 24-hour forecast took around 24 hours. Nowadays the National Weather Service’s supercomputers run at 8.4 petaflops gathering information and predicting all kinds of weather patterns.
US meteorologist Norman Phillips was the first to create a “general circulation model” that stimulated seasonal patterns in the lowest layer of the atmosphere. The first model stimulating the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean was developed in 1969 by scientists at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, known as a “coupled model.” Scientists now consider volcanic activity, vegetation, and atmospheric chemistry as factors in climate models. These climate models allow scientists to track the effects of human activity on the climate, as well as patterns in climate globally.
Short-term vs Long-term Forecasting
Different tools are used for predicting short-term versus long-term weather changes.
Meteorologists utilize a method known as nowcasting to predict short-term weather. This method uses radar and satellite data to gauge current weather conditions and upcoming changes within 6 hours. Nowcasting utilizes local surface stations and supercomputer calculations, allowing meteorologists to track individual storms. It is especially important in predicting high impact weather such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, hurricanes, allowing residents to quickly respond to these disasters.
Another method used in short-term forecasting is Model Output Statistics (MOS), which relates observations of weather phenomena to variables and predicts future trends using statistics. MOS takes into account values such as temperature, dew point, and wind to calculate short term changes in weather.
Long term forecasting, on the other hand, uses climatological approaches and often focuses on identifying anomalies where weather departs from normal conditions in a season. One particularly important trend is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO), which maps three climate phases: El Niño (warming of ocean surface in central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which causes west to east winds along the equator), La Niña (cooling of ocean in central and eastern Pacific Ocean, strengthens east to west winds along equator), and Neutral (neither El Niño or La Niña). This climate pattern and many others allows meteorologists to effectively make long-term trend predictions.
Weather Forecasting Equipment
Meteorologists use a variety of advanced equipment and techniques to accurately predict the weather.
One critical tool for meteorologists is the Doppler Radar, which is a spherical tower that measures shifts in frequency of radio signals during severe storms. These towers, scattered across the country, can detect types of precipitation, rotation of thunderstorm clouds, and wind changes.
Meteorologists also rely heavily on weather satellites, which can take close images of the Earth’s surface as they orbit (polar orbiting satellites), remain above the same location and take images every 30 seconds (geostationary satellites), or even monitor solar winds and other space weather phenomenon (deep space satellites).
Radiosondes are a critical source of information for upper-air data. These box-shaped measurement tools are attached to weather balloons and are launched from 900 locations worldwide twice a day. They gather valuable data such as air pressure, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction.
Conclusion
Weather forecasting, a seemingly automatic part of everyday life, is actually a complex science that continues to develop and change along with technological advancements. Meteorologists work tirelessly to provide accurate, timely weather forecasts that allow for complex data from supercomputers to be condensed into easily accessible weather predications on a cell phone app. As climate change continues to impact weather around the world, the work of meteorologists becomes even more vital in protecting civilians from dangerous weather conditions. Understanding weather as civilians allows us to better appreciate this valuable field of science.
Works Cited
Cahir, John. “Weather Forecasting – Principles and Methodology of Weather Forecasting.” Encyclopedia Britannica, 2025, http://www.britannica.com/science/weather-forecasting/Principles-and-methodology-of-weather-forecasting.
L’Heureux, Michelle. “What Is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a Nutshell? | NOAA Climate.gov.” Climate.gov, NOAA, 27 May 2014, http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell.
NOAA. “6 Tools Our Meteorologists Use to Forecast the Weather | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.” Noaa.gov, 14 Aug. 2017, http://www.noaa.gov/stories/6-tools-our-meteorologists-use-to-forecast-weather.
US Department of Commerce, NOAA. “The Forecast Process: Observing and Analysis.” Www.weather.gov, http://www.weather.gov/rah/virtualtourfcstobsanalysis.
Wapler, Kathrin, et al. Nowcasting. Elsevier, 27 Nov. 2019, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780124095489117774.
“Weather Forecasting and Climate Modelling: A Short History | Science Museum.” Science Museum, 2024, http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stories/weather-forecasting-and-climate-modelling-short-history.
Sci Insight 
Leave a comment